There’s a scene in The West Wing (I know, I can’t help it) where pollster Joey Lucas is debating WH Deputy Chief of Staff Josh Lyman on the meaning of some polling numbers. Lyman cautions that continued negatives on gun control means they have to “dial down the gun rhetoric.” Lucas, the woman with the numbers, goes a different interpretive route:
You say that these numbers mean dial it down. I say they mean dial it up. You
haven’t gotten through. There are people you haven’t persuaded yet. These numbers mean dial it up. Otherwise you’re like the French radical watching the crowd run by and saying “There go my people, I must find out where they are going so I can lead them.”
It feels corny to quote The West Wing, but I can’t find the original story after a hard thirty seconds of searching, so I’ll go with a fantasy text as my source.(*)
We are now watching the Old Guard of the Democratic party play the part of the French radical. They are going to have to run to find the front of the march so they can lead on progressive issues. In fact, they’re going to have to run hard, because they’re racing conservative evangelicals to lead in that space.
Two remarkable things about the election earlier this month and relevant here are: 1) the passage of minimum wage bills in Arkansas and Missouri; and 2) the restoration of voting rights to convicted felons in Florida. There were, of course, also good outcomes on Medicare, but they were less surprising. Minimum wage raises in two red states, one of which is “right to work” (AR) and one where “right to work” was defeated after a heavily fought battle (MO), is a pretty significant outcome. Unions are weak in both states, Democrats can’t be bothered to fight in most of their voting districts – and yet, people are taking actions that look like distinctly blue states and cities.
More interesting, though, is the restoration of voting rights to convicted felons in Florida. The state constitutional amendment was passed by 65% of Florida voters. Sixty-five percent. Think of that. A state that seems likely to vote 50.1% to 49.9% on drowning puppies, voted overwhelmingly to restore voting rights – to convicted felons!
On neither of these issues did Hillary Clinton take stands that could be called leadership. Her strongest statement on the Fight for $15 was that she wouldn’t veto a bill for a $15 minimum wage if Congress passed one. And I’ll spare you guys listening to me talk about the hypocrisy of Clintonists on racial justice and the New Jim Crow.
What we’re continuing to see – through various flip districts, campaigns that ran outside of direct DNC management, or grassroots action is an emerging consensus in support of issues Democrats typically feel a need to dial down. People are marching ahead on issues that the Democratic consulting and political operative class consider to be losers.
And today we find out that evangelical leaders are planning to show their softer side and take up several classically Democratic issues. Ralph Reed, of the Freedom and Faith Coalition, responding to the harsh turn of public opinion against what is now seen as the evangelical agenda, says [emphasis mine]:
“Social conservatives need to maximize turnout from the base and expand the map by stressing the softer side of the faith agenda: education reform, immigration and criminal justice reform, and anti-poverty measures.”
Of course, not all evangelicals are moving in that direction. In fact, some are doubling down on the punitive fundamentals. Tony Perkins of the Family Research Council, has an interesting Aristotle meets Goldwater phrasing for his moral strategy moving forward:
Very few people anymore are in the middle. Barack Obama brought us to this point more quickly because of the extreme policies that he pushed. Trump, with the support of evangelicals, has worked to move the pendulum back.
In other words, extremism in the face of extremism isn’t extremism, it’s a way back to a balanced center.
Despite the internal disagreement, it’s clear that very serious players in the most hardened corners of the right are moving into classic, DFL-style Democratic territory. Education, criminal justice reform (which in the age of the New Jim Crow largely means racial justice), and anti-poverty work are supposed to be Dem issues. But evangelicals see that as winnable territory.
Within the Democratic party, there’s a strange fight happening around the Green New Deal. The Green New Deal is a combination program of infrastructure, public spending, jobs, and climate change fix – something we might have considered Democratic Party 101 in the not so distant past. And yet, the Congressional Progressive Caucus is rallying troops in a fight to get these issues onto Nancy Pelosi’s to-do list. (I realize some of this is theater. And it’s definitely smart politics to pressure Pelosi. That’ll make it easier for Pelosi to deal with other wings of the party and the broader donor base. Still, it’s weird to watch, especially as 45* continues to woo working folks and unions with hopes of an infrastructure bill.)
45* is already getting out in front of the Republican black and latinx voter problem with announcement of prison sentencing reform, taking a big swing at the Democrats’ already fairly weak claim on being the party of racial justice. Evangelicals are getting ready to take on the mantle of fixing our schools, fighting poverty, and economic justice.
And now we get to watch Pelosi, Schumer, and the DNC in a foot race against Ralph Reed to the front of the crowd – to try and lead the people who have been headed in the direction Democrats should have been marching all along.
(*) An extra thirty seconds indicates that this is one of those quotes will wind up attributing to all sorts of people, including Alexandre Auguste Ledru-Rollin, a forgotten French radical of the 1848 era. The line attributed to him, by some, is “There go the people. I must follow them, for I am their leader.”
